| Stuart's Left Eye | 
Date Thu Jan 17 2:38:46 p.m. CT 2008
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| Wow. I was wondering what the first pick was worth. I would not have guessed that much. I'm anxiously now awaiting Glass's draft lists to see if it's McFadden that he values that highly.
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| OP's Vanilla With A Nine |
Date Thu Jan 17 2:53:48 p.m. CT 2008
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| I think it's McFadden. Everyone wants the next Adrian Peterson.
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| Commissioner |
Date Thu Jan 17 3:29:03 p.m. CT 2008
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| Stuart's Left Eye:
> Wow. I was wondering what the first pick was worth.
> I would not have guessed that much. I'm anxiously
> now awaiting Glass's draft lists to see if it's
> McFadden that he values that highly.
I can pretty much guarantee McFadden will be the #1 pick unless a leg falls off before our draft.
In some years that #1 pick might be worth more and sometimes less. It depends on draft depth, if there is what some consider a uber talent, and whether someone is willing to pay for the pick and have what it takes to get the pick. Tough to accomplish some of those things.
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| Stuart's Left Eye |
Date Thu Jan 17 3:53:08 p.m. CT 2008
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| I looked at prior drafts a few nights ago. I looked at the top RB selected in the years 1997-2002 (the ones since haven't had time to prove or disprove themselves). 2 of the 6 were consistent #1's (median finish in FP's in the top 12), 2 were consistent #2's (median top 24), and 2 were total flops. While it's a small sample, the odds of hitting a top RB aren't very good. I like Rav's side of this - throw a bunch of picks at the wall and hope one sticks.
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| Commissioner |
Date Thu Jan 17 4:23:28 p.m. CT 2008
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| The first thing you have to remember is that the RB that goes first in the NFL draft isn't always the first one picked in a dynasty rookie draft. The same goes for all positions.
Second, although I too like my end of the deal or I wouldn't have made it, the odds lower with each successive pick that the player will do you any good before you lose them due to roster considerations. At the same time you can get quality players later in the first round or even later rounds and in free agency after the draft. If you pay attention and do your homework.
For example, although you may not see this as great, I feel my offseason in the PDL dynasty was very successful last year. I picked 12 in each round of the draft. I got WR-Sidney Rice, RB-Tony Hunt, and RB-Garrett Wolfe. In a trade for Chad Pennington I got a 2008 2nd round pick. In a trade for TO I got 2 2008 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick. In free agency I was able to pick up these players before the start of the season. WR-Laurent Robinson, QB-David Garrard, K-Mason Crosby, QB-Kellen Clemens, WR-Shaun McDonald, K-Nick Folk, and Titans DEF. Unfortunately I dropped Fargas in the offseason so not all success. Also I dropped Crosby later in 2007, I needed the roster spot.
Third, the absolute toughest thing is to hold onto a rookie pick or FA until they actually become useful. The Taxi Squad helps immensely in this but still only does so much. It's much easier to have that high pick that plays right away then to make the decision about whether you can afford to lock up a roster spot for someone who may never develop.
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| OP's Vanilla With A Nine |
Date Thu Jan 17 4:45:51 p.m. CT 2008
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| Unfortunately I don't watch much college football other than my two favorite schools, so I have no idea who to draft. I've never seen McFadden so I couldn't even guess if it was worth trading up to get him or not.
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| Skip's Hartville Havoc |
Date Thu Jan 17 5:12:15 p.m. CT 2008
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| I'd even be cautious about getting the "next Adrian Peterson". I have no idea why he has suddenly vaulted to #2 or #1 in RB rankings when his season stats were compiled in only a handful of games. Is he that good? Possibly. But I'd be concerned over his durability and the fact that opponents were pretty effective in shutting him down after he returned from injury.
As to McFadden...he could very well be that good. And he could flop. We can point to success stories and flops from pick #1 thru Mr. Irrelevant in pretty much every NFL draft.
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| Commissioner |
Date Thu Jan 17 5:17:20 p.m. CT 2008
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| I don't watch any college football other than an occasional Badger game. Which is why I start my look at the rookies real early. Generally as soon as the fantasy playoffs are over. There are lots of sites out there. You have to weed through them a bit and none are perfect but you can get a good idea. It's just like anything else, you read a little and wade through the crap to get the best idea of what is true value.
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| Commissioner |
Date Thu Jan 17 5:39:26 p.m. CT 2008
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| Caution is advisable but a rookie draft is the main way of acquiring new talent for your team.
I think all of you would say that you understand a lot more about how to run a dynasty team than you did last year at this time. I would hope that at least most of you, including me, realize that you can learn much more. Look at how few good FAs were available during the season last year. Do you think that number will increase? I don't.
So in light of that, the best way to get new talent is to acquire them via the draft. So while I understand caution and often exercise it, when you see the guy you want aggression may be the way to go.
Believe me it was very hard to give up the #1 pick. That was not Glass' first offer. I know that getting a guy that is special is much easier to do at #1 than it is later. I could miss on every one of my picks and Glass ends up with the next LT. We don't know who won at this point. Heck, maybe we both do.
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| Glass Gluttons |
Date Thu Jan 24 5:00:53 p.m. CT 2008
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| While there are plenty of flops that hit the NFL every year out of the draft, you can hand pick a few players every year and see they have what it takes to be an elite talent in the NFL. RBs especially are easy to pick.
Sometimes you get the guys who are second tier or lower guys that either fail or succeed past your expectations, but there are locks, and RB is usually where they come at. Last year, AP was an obvious NFL caliber back. If anyone watched him in college they would have seen that. While not all skill sets translate to the NFL from college, RBs have the most.
With all that being said, there are only a handful of these locks that have come out in the last 10 years. I was one of the few who said Bush was not a lock to be an elite back. So you get the idea of what it takes to even hit that criteria.
AP was an obvious one to me. Injuries aside, he has elite level talent and vision. McFadden is not at his level. With that said, I thought AP was probably the best RB I have ever wateched play in college with the exception maybe of Herschel Walker.
I didn't know the exact level of college knowledge in the league, so I started accumulating picks to make a run at McFadden. He was my target before the season even started. While I am not going to go out and say McFadden is a lock to be a top 10 back his rookie year, he possesses every quality of a great back. He is far ahead of every other back in this draft in talent. The 3 first round picks for him is a pretty fair price when you have nobody even close to him in the rest of the draft.
Lets not forget, that I still have another first round pick to go with McFadden. So everyone can stop guessing who I am taking. I really thought it would be obvious.
Rav got more than a fair deal in this trade. This trade was not about trying to get the best of a guy. He needed picks, as I figured anybody would who finihed last. He gets three quality first round picks, and I get to add McFadden to a team that already is close to being strong at every single starting position. Rav could very well come out of this with three future studs.
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| Commissioner |
Date Thu Jan 24 9:10:04 p.m. CT 2008
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| Glass Gluttons:
> Rav got more than a fair deal in this trade. This
> trade was not about trying to get the best of a
> guy. He needed picks, as I figured anybody would
> who finihed last. He gets three quality first
> round picks, and I get to add McFadden to a team
> that already is close to being strong at every
> single starting position. Rav could very well come
> out of this with three future studs.
In order for me to come out with 3 future studs I actually have to draft decent. My standing draft record so far, here and the PDL has not been one that would show I have a chance to do that.
Anyway, that's neither here nor there. What I do know is that we both got what we wanted/needed. You can't ask for anything more than that. I have more holes to fill and even though the guys I draft probably won't have the impact that McFadden will next year I, at least, have the chance to fill several holes long term. The hard part will be finding a place on my roster for all the draft picks. With the Taxi Squad I have 2 spots I can use right there.
This will be something that several of you will experience for the first time this year. Having to cut a rookie who was a good pick at the time but you just don't have room on your roster for. Then a year or two down the road he's a starter and putting up good numbers. And you no longer have the guy on your roster. Tough choices will end up being made and occasionally you and I will make the wrong ones.
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