Erie Fantasy Sports Classic League 2

Topic Erie Fantasy Sports Classic League 2 Message Board / "LEAGUE X" MOCK DRAFT: ROUND 1 (110 hits)

*Chaos Theory	Date Sun Apr 30 1:01:49 a.m. ET 2006 Edited Mon May 1 2:24:32 p.m. ET 2006
	Last year, for entertainment purposes only, I did a mock draft for our league.  KFFL combined rounds 1 & 2, which sucked, but more importantly, it made it near impossible to guess what the later picks would be.  Hell, it was near impossible to guess the first 5.  Nonetheless, most of you liked it, so here's my 2nd crack at it.   Many thought it was going to be a 'down' year for fantasy football rookies, but I must say that I was pleasantly surprised by how the day 1 NFL picks went down. Since our 1st round begins May 15th, which is just two weeks away, I don't have much time to wait for all the opinions from various sources to come in regarding the fantasy implications of where the rookies fell.  Therefore, I'm going to do my best to shoot from the hip and predict our league's first round.  As I did last year, I will list the top 3 needs (in decending order) for each team, guess the pick, and then list alternate picks.  I'll probably be wrong a lot, but who cares?  First, though, I'd like to make sure I have the draft order correct for the first round.  I know some of you have traded picks, but I can't seem to find this comprehensive information.  So I'm piecing it together from the info I DO have.  Therefore, if you notice I've awarded a team a pick they don't have, please let me know ASAP.  Tks. DRAFT ORDER: ROUND 1 (To the best of my knowledge) --------------------------------------------- #1: Chaos Theory (from FastFish) #2: Bada Bing #3: Desperados #4: Chaos Theory (from Devil's Den) #5: Gamblers #6: Kobayashi Maru #7: Mighty Lunge II #8: FastFish WAR (from Annihilators, from Catamounts, from Devil's Den) #9: Annihilators (from Vermont Catamounts) #10: Montana Grizzlies #11: James Gang #12: Devils Den (from Chaos Theory) 2006 'LEAGUE X' MOCK DRAFT: ROUND 1 ------------------------------------------------------------ Pick #1:  Chaos Theory Team needs: RB, WR, QB PROJECTED PICK:  DE Mario Williams  Naw, in all seriousness, Chaos Theory will not pull a Casserly...  No instead they pulled a Ditka, and sold the farm (and the silos, the field, 3 tractors and a plow) for RB Reggie Bush.  While early indications suggest insanity for trading the NFL and fantasy MVP for an unproven rookie now expected to split carries in New Orleans, if Bush can capitalize on his talent, he could well live up to his Gayle Sayers comparisons.  Until then, this pick will be the subject of scrutiny, barbs, jabs and any number of colorful metaphors to be thrown my way.  There's no question New Orleans was not the best-case scenario for Bush, but long-term, I would argue it's still better than Houston.  Short-term, he's sharing carries, but McAllister isn't exactly a sure-thing anymore.  And to be honest, I'd rather have a healthy Drew Brees taking pressure off the running game than David Carr. ACTUAL PICK: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pick #2:  Bada Bing Team needs:  RB, TE, K PROJECTED PICK:  RB Joseph Addai There are some real interesting choices to make with the RBs following Bush.  In a way, they all have incredible potential, with differing levels of skill vs opportunity.  Depending on preference, any one of Addai, Moroney or Williams could be chosen here.  But my guess is that Bada takes the player most likely to win the starting job right away.  I like Addai more than most, and was hoping he wouldn't go to the Colts because I knew he then wouldn't slip to me at #4.  But, Addai lands in an excellent situation replacing Edge, and shouldn't have much trouble beating out Dominick Rhodes, regardless of the crap spewing forth from the coaches promising Rhodes a shot at the starting job. ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pick #3:  Desperados Team needs:  QB, WR, RB PROJECTED PICK:  RB Laurence Moroney Desperados have a grave need for a true franchise QB, and if I were in their position, I would take QB Matt Leinart.  Leinart, in my opinion, is a better prospect than Vince Young, even though Young was taken first in the NFL draft.  Not only that, but Leinart is about to inherit potentially one the best offenses in the league as early as this season.  What fantasy dynasty team owner wouldn't kill for a chance to grab a QB who can spend the next decade throwing to Pro-Bowlers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin (oh yeah, and hand off to Edge James for a few seasons)??   But I learned last year that logic and team needs go out the window when you have an early pick.  The Desperados have 2 solid starting RBs, and 2 decent backups, but that won't stop them from drafting New England's newest 1st rounder.  Desperados won't need production from Moroney right away, and that's good because Dillon will be the starter this season.  But Dillon is 32, and scheduled to count an unacceptable amount toward the salary cap next year.  It then becomes Moroney's show in '07 and should pay off nicely for a Desperados team that will still desperately need a franchise QB. ACTUAL PICK: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pick #4:  Chaos Theory Team needs:  WR, RB, QB PROJECTED PICK:  RB DeAngelo Williams I need a WR really, really bad.  But sadly, despite my pre-NFL draft optimism, I've determined that none are worth drafting this early.  Not even close.  I said a month ago that I never would have thought Williams would fall to #4 in a dynasty draft.  Most scouts thought he was the 2nd best RB in this class-- but then the NFL draft happened.  Amazing how placement affects ranking in this hobby!  Williams is the last of the RBs worth drafting automatically this year, and I'd be happy with any one of them after Bush.  Addai has the opportunity, Moroney has the potential, and Williams has the pedigree.  So why did Williams slip?  He goes to a Carolina team where he needs to compete with not one, but two RBs for playing time-- DeShaun Foster and Eric Shelton.  Carolina fans actually support a running-back-by-committee scenario for that team.  I believe Williams can win the 'primary' RBBC spot, but the question is when..?  And that kind of uncertainty sends shivers down the spines of fantasy owners. ACTUAL PICK: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pick #5:  Gamblers Team needs:  TE, RB, WR PROJECTED PICK:  RB LenDale White White is the enigma of the draft.  On one hand you have a super-talented player going to a situation in Tennessee where he could have a great shot of unseating a very average Chris Brown.  On the other hand you have well-documented work ethic concerns, attitude problems and a rumored failed drug test.  That kind of risk would have me pass for a safer, and much more needed guy-- TE Vernon Davis.  But, the potential of LenDale White may be enough to sway the thinking of the Gamblers away from the draft's only 'sure-thing'. ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pick #6:  Kobayashi Maru Team needs:  QB, RB, TE PROJECTED PICK:  QB Matt Leinart Pick 6 is a tough call this year.  Mark tends to draft conservatively, and I doubt he would have the stomach to draft someone as risky as Lendale White if he is available, so I know he's praying for one of the other RBs to fall.  But in my mock, it doesn't happen.  Although Leinart should go at #3, he won't, and Maru finally gets a franchise QB they can count on.  More and more news out of Tennessee suggests McNair has played his last game as a starting QB in the NFL, and Michael Vick is too inconsistent.  Leinart is by far not a sure thing in the NFL, but he's got enough talent to make it work, and I've already discussed the potential of Arizona's offense.  TE Vernon Davis could be an alternate pick here.  Even though Antonio Gates is on the roster, he could use a solid backup-- especially if the 2TE set comes to pass for the '07 fantasy season. ACTUAL PICK: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pick #7:  Mighty Lunge II Team needs: TE, WR, RB PROJECTED PICK:  TE Vernon Davis Not only is it a need pick, but it's a smart pick.  Davis is being compared to Antonio Gates, and some have called him the best TE prospect in years.  Of course, they also said that about Kellen Winslow (although, in fairness, Kellen hasn't had a chance to prove otherwise, yet).  I would not be surprised if Davis is off the board by pick 7, and if that were to happen, look for Lunge to take a look at one of the WRs. ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pick #8:  FastFish WAR Team needs:  RB, TE, QB PROJECTED PICK:  QB Vince Young This is purely a 'best player available' pick, since the drop-off in projected talent is steep after Young.  FastFish is solid at starting QB with Roethlisberger, but his only other QB is the untested and suddenly non-guaranteed Phillip Rivers.  Young could be an electric player at his position, and Joe likes to roll the dice a little even if QB is not a major area of need.  Of course,  FastFish might reach for a homer pick like WR Derek Hagen, or he could even add insurance to Rivers by drafting the dubious 2nd round San Diego selection, QB Charlie Whitehurst.  Even though Young makes sense, I'm guessing we'll all be surprised here. ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pick #9:  Annihilators Team needs:  RB, RB, QB PROJECTED PICK:  RB Jerious Norwood The Annihilators have a major, major need for a RB which forces them into this desperation pick.  I call it a desperation pick only because there is clear value at WR at this point in the draft, but Ahmed is forced to draft for need.  And it really isn't a bad pick...  Atlanta has Warrick Dunn, who's clearly slowing down, and the failed TJ Duckett experiment is about over.  Norwood could come in and take over as early as this season, making him the first sleeper of the draft.  Then again, he could fail miserably, much like Eric Shelton last year. ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pick #10:  Montana Grizzlies Team needs:  QB, WR, RB PROJECTED PICK:  WR Chad Jackson The Grizzlies are in the enviable position of not really needing anything other than depth to take over eventually for some aging stars.  Man, every time I look at that roster I wonder why they haven't been the champions the last 2 years (FastFish, this was YOUR team once!).  With that in mind, they can draft best player available.  And that player is WR Chad Jackson.  Even though Santonio Holmes has a better chance at starting right away, Jackson is the only WR with the physical tools to be a true #1 WR for an NFL team.  He's raw, though, and it may take him a year or two.  But Griz can afford the wait and will bank on potential rather than immediate impact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pick #11:  James Gang Team Needs:  Owner, GM, WR PROJECTED PICK:  WR Santonio Holmes Assuming the owner of James Gang shows up for the draft, they will have a no-brainer pick to make.  They are on the same level as Montana Grizzlies as far as fantasy powerhouse teams go, and they will pick one of the few players left who can come in and make an almost immediate impact-- possibly enough to put them over the top.  Holmes can do just that.  While undersized for a WR, he does have heart, and could become a solid fantasy backup at the position. ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pick #12:  Devil's Den Team needs:  WR, TE, RB PROJECTED PICK:  WR Sinorice Moss Den closes out the first round addressing an area of need.  Like Holmes, Moss is undersized but has gone to a decent team who will give him ample opportunities.  In fact, the Giants traded to the top of the 2nd round to get him, and teams don't usually do that simply to draft special teams players.  Another option would be Green Bay's Greg Jennings, who was taken only 4 picks later.  It may take Jennings a little longer to develop, but with crap at WR in front of him in Green Bay, he could make an immediate impact.  The pick would also fit nicely now that Den has Aaron Rodgers.  I just like QB/WR combos... ACTUAL PICK: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So there you have it...  Comments?
*Kobayashi Maru	Date Sun Apr 30 10:40:34 a.m. ET 2006 Edited Sun Apr 30 10:47:54 a.m. ET 2006
	I was going to give you a hard time about making exactly one "prediction" (which it isn't really since you're the one making the pick) but then it occurred to me that it probably took a good half hour to figure out the actual draft order.  On that issue, I don't think the Catamounts have a pick in the first round at this point, though I'm not sure who has the extra pick offhand.
*Chaos Theory	Date Sun Apr 30 1:00:10 p.m. ET 2006 Edited Sun Apr 30 1:07:09 p.m. ET 2006
	Actually Mark, you're right, it looks like Catamounts traded that pick to Devil's Den.  And then that pick was traded to FastFish...  Tks for pointing that out.
*Kobayashi Maru	Date Sun Apr 30 1:18:26 p.m. ET 2006
	Come on, admit you're a LITTLE disappointed that Bush went to the Saints after you traded for the #1 overall.  McCallister may not be a sure thing, but if I were a Bush owner I'd rather have my guy splitting time with Davis than McCallister, who has been more injury prone, but much more dynamic at times. With that change, I think the order is spot on.
*Chaos Theory	Date Sun Apr 30 1:37:50 p.m. ET 2006 Edited Sun Apr 30 1:43:47 p.m. ET 2006
	There's no question it's a tougher situation with McAllister than D. Davis.  But, if Bush ends up being that good, there's no way in hell McAllister stays in the regular starting rotation with more than 5-10 carries a game.  Bush needs to gain about 10-15 pounds before he can be counted on as an 'every down' RB.  Whether it was Houston, New Orleans, Jets, Green Bay-- wherever-- I was expecting to ride out his rookie season with lower expectations.  But as I mentioned above, I think New Orleans is doing more to improve their team than the Texans, who seem to be a bit clueless.  Nonetheless, he should be a nice #3 fantasy RB for me this year.
*Kobayashi Maru	Date Sun Apr 30 10:21:06 p.m. ET 2006
	Fun stuff as always Justin.  I'll try not to take the "draft conservatively" thing personally.    I did trade out of the #1 overall take McGahee and sat on him for a year a few years back.  I don't think that's all that conservative, but maybe that depends on what you mean by the word... This may be wishful thinking, but I've got a feeling that one of the five RBs you have listed in picks 1-5 is going to drop to 6.  I think Bada might take Williams instead of Addai since Foster's already on his roster.  He's in a tough spot with the #2, particularly if he doesn't care for Williams.  Lendale and Young are the keys to the round.  If you guess right where they'll land, everything else gets easier to guess.  Complicating the White situation in this particular league is that Chris Brown is a free agent.  Though I'm not sure why.  Witchdoctor carried him in the old EFS9 league, and the Gamblers took over that franchise when the good doctor chose not to follow us to our new home.  Chris Brown is not on Gamblers roster, yet Chris BUSH, RB TEN, is, despite the fact that no waiver period or drafting has yet occurred in this incarnation of the league.  That looks like to me like an error.  If Chris Bush really is Chris Brown, either by a name change I haven't heard about (possibly in the hopes of cashing in on Reggie Bush's marketing opportunities, or maybe to pose as his long lost cousin who needs a loan for a "business opportunity") or a mistake in roster transher that is yet to be corrected, then the Lendale White pick for the Gamblers makes a LOT of sense at the 1.5.  Hmmm, maybe thinking that Bada should take Williams since he has Foster and that the Gamblers should take White IF they have Brown is why I have a reputation for conservative drafting... White's supposed positive drug test, btw, has not been confirmed by the league.  What has come out in the last 24 hours is that he did NOT test positive at the combine, meaning that if he did test positive it was in a private screen conducted by a team during a predraft interview.  And if that happened, the team that knows it isn't about to confirm that fact.  Did you see the bulky vest they put on White during ESPN's ridiculous fashion runway intro to their draft coverage?  Looked to me like they were trying to hide his belly... Kudos for the Jerious Norwood projection.  It has almost no chance of being right, but I'll give you credit for going out on a limb. IF the round breaks this way, Fish is going to get a nice player at the 2.1...
*Chaos Theory	Date Sun Apr 30 11:01:23 p.m. ET 2006 Edited Mon May 1 2:30:18 p.m. ET 2006
	I think you're right about Brown.  Probably right next to each other on the waiver list and commish may have clicked it by accident.  Easily correctable-- and arguably a better deal for Gamblers.  Contact the commish to have this corrected.  But dammit I would have to agree with Mark that it would probably single-handedly screw up my draft already at pick 2.  Williams would make sense for Bada.   And conservative meaning you don't tend to draft risky players-- at least in the first round (Clarrett last year blows my theory in Round 2).  I think of Kevin Jones instead of the considered more talented, but injury-prone Steven Jackson a couple years ago and then the Braylon Edwards over Mike Williams pick last year.  And if you're talking about Jay Cutler at 2.1, he's the guy most likely to slip if not one of the WRs.  I'm sticking with the Norwood pick.

Topic Erie Fantasy Sports Classic League 2 Message Board / "LEAGUE X" MOCK DRAFT: ROUND 1 (110 hits)